Forecasting

A major long-term goal of airborne environmental DNA research is to move from describing ecological change to predicting it. This requires understanding how biodiversity responds to environmental drivers such as climate, land use, and habitat structure.

By combining long-term DNA records with environmental data, we can identify relationships between ecological patterns and external variables. These relationships form the basis for models that can explain past change and potentially predict future trajectories.

For example, if certain biodiversity patterns consistently respond to temperature, precipitation, or land-use intensity, these relationships can be used to forecast how ecosystems may shift under future environmental scenarios. This includes changes in species composition, community structure, and overall biodiversity levels.

Although still in development, this approach represents a shift toward predictive ecology, where large-scale environmental DNA datasets are used not only to monitor ecosystems but also to anticipate future changes.

Such forecasting tools could eventually support conservation planning, environmental management, and early warning systems for ecosystem disruption.